A Return to Sanity

Is sanity returning to the local housing market? Some preliminary indicators hint that it might be-and that's good news if you're house hunting.

For most of 2005, many new-home communities were faced with backlogs of sold but unbuilt homes. And would-be buyers were taking numbers, hoping that luck would be on their side and they'd get an opportunity to put down a deposit.

Nobody thinks that's a healthy, or a sustainable, situation. Preliminary evidence seems to suggest that in 2006, builders will have to do more than simply plant a sign in the ground to attract shoppers.

What does this mean for buyers? More choices and moderating price increases are the most obvious benefits. What it doesn't mean, most experts insist, is that the Tampa Bay housing market is headed for a fall.

For example, Credit Suisse First Boston recently released a list of the nation's top 10 metro areas with the greatest risk of a future drop in home prices, and Tampa wasn't on it. However, three of the 10 were elsewhere in Florida: Sarasota (No. 7), Jacksonville (No. 9) and Naples (No. 10).

Still, even in those markets, economists admit it would take a significant rise in mortgage interest rates-say, at least four points tacked onto the current 6 percent-combined with sagging job creation and slower growth, to trigger a serious problem. And the chances of those things happening anytime soon are remote, at best.

Will all those folks from the Northeast and the Midwest suddenly decide they enjoy snowstorms and opt to stay put? Will the Gulf of Mexico and golf courses lose their allure? I didn't think so, either.

So, Tampa Bay home shoppers rejoice. Over the next 12 months you'll have more choices than you had during the last year. You'll be able to move in more quickly. And what you'll be paying, while high by historical standards, is a bargain relative to the rest of Florida's major markets.

So, if you were waiting until the market calmed down a bit before seriously jumping into the fray, I'd say it's time now to jump-and we can help you decide where.

In this, our second big issue, we again present all the information you'll need to make an informed decision. Plus we've got a profile on Teri McGinnis, the new president of the Tampa Bay Builders Association, as well as stories about "green" building, and high-end theater systems for your home.

Combine that with the most thorough, up-to-date listing of new-home communities you'll find anywhere, detailed public school data and a colorful county-by-county grand tour, and you've truly got the Tampa Bay region in print.

By the way, thanks to all the industry professionals who showered us with compliments about the debut issue of Tampa Bay Homebuyer.

The Greater Tampa Association of Realtors liked the book so much that, out of all the choices, they endorsed it as their preferred relocation publication.

We're glad you liked it-and we promise even better things to come.