STILL TRENDING UP

As builders find their equilibrium, they continue to move ahead with new communities for 2015.

By Mike Candelaria

The bottom line? Growth is back in the new-home market, although the pace is more measured. While records aren’t being broken, compared to the depths of the downturn, this fairly subdued and occasionally choppy recovery looks pretty darned good.

The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, which gauges builder perceptions of current sales and expectations for the next six months, slipped to 57 — still a solid enough result to indicate that “we are in a slow march to normal,” according to David Crowe, NAHB’s chief economist. 

(For context, a reading over 50 means continued growth is anticipated; a reading under 50 —- well, we just won’t go there).

Nationally, NAHB is forecasting 991,000 total new-home starts — single-family and multifamily — when the final tallies are complete for 2014. That’s up 6.6 percent from 930,000 starts in 2013. 

Single-family home starts alone are expected to rise 2.5 percent, to 637,000 units. Then, in 2015, NAHB foresees a 26 percent increase, to 802,000. By 2016, NAHB predicts, single-family starts will once again pass the seven-figure mark, hitting a healthy 1.1 million.

The averages from 2000-2003 are used as a benchmark for a “normal” year. During that time, there were an average of 1.3 million new-home starts annually. That means we’re currently at 48 percent of normal. We’ll be at 90 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of 2016, according to NAHB. Not stellar, but quite a contrast to early 2009, when housing nationwide bottomed out at 27 percent of normal. 

In the aftermath of the crash, the formation of new households was depressed as the number of millennials living with their parents, or doubling or tripling up in apartments, soared to about 3 to 4 million above pre-crash levels.

 As the economy continues to improve and these 18-to-34 year-olds enter the new-home market, demand will increase.

“In a normal year, there should be demand for 1.7 million units,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. adding that each single-family home generates about 3.5 jobs over the course of a year. 

THE LOCAL PERSPECTIVE

Speaking of jobs, according to Forbes magazine and an analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Metro Orlando — including Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole counties — tops the list of metro areas with labor forces of 1 million or more for job growth. 

Even so, new-home starts locally have flattened as inventories near equilibrium, according to a third-quarter report by Metrostudy, a statewide real-estate analytics company.

“Still, closing paces remain strong and builder profit margins are good,” according to Anthony Crocco, Metrostudy’s regional director for the Orlando and Jacksonville markets.

The survey showed that 2,614 single-family homes were started in the third quarter of 2014. That’s a decrease of 6.6 percent compared to the third-quarter of 2013. 

However, single-family closings in the third quarter were up 9.2 percent, meaning excess inventory was being snapped up as builders took a breath.

Numbers for all three quarters combined look much better. Starts hit 9,286, a year-over-year increase of 4 percent. And closings for the past four quarters — from the final quarter of 2013 through the third quarter of 2014 — hit 8,987. That’s an18.3 percent increase from the same period a year before. 

THE BOTTOM LINE

Records may not be broken in 2015. But area builders expect to get busier in the new year.

“The Orlando area continues to experience economic development at a steady pace, which makes the area very desirable for homebuyers,” says Donna Pope, president of D. R. Horton Homes’ Central Florida Division.

“We continue to see great strength in the entry-level and first move-up markets, where there’s enormous demand from buyers looking to upgrade their homes or move out of their apartments,” adds John Pantuso, marketing manager for Royal Oak Homes.

Transportation makeovers and robust tourism are also delivering opportunities for homebuilders.

I-4 is beginning six years of work on 21 miles in Orange and Seminole counties. That will make commuting more of a hassle for a while, but may make locations where I-4 can be avoided even more desirable. The I-4 situation will particularly boost infill projects, where commutes aren’t an issue.

In the meantime, extensions of S.R. 429, also known as the Western Beltway, have opened up vast areas for development. And SunRail has finally debuted, giving the region its first high-speed commuter rail service.

Tourism is also impacting housing. More than 50 million visitors — an all-time high — will have visited Central Florida by the end of 2014. Many tourists, especially those from Canada and overseas, become homebuyers. 

So, where exactly are the new communities for 2015?

GO SOUTHWEST, SOUTHEAST ... AND WEST

According to Metrostudy’s third-quarter survey, southwest Orange County is the leader among submarkets for construction starts. 

Case in point is Pulte Homes’ Windsor at Westside, a 600-lot vacation-home community west of Walt Disney World in the Four Corners area near U.S. Highway 192 and U.S. Highway 27. 

Construction is scheduled to begin in early 2015 on single-family homes that range from six to nine bedrooms, priced from the high $300. Four- and five-bedroom townhomes will start in the high $200s. 

In February, Toll Brothers is launching Royal Cypress Preserve, a luxurious gated community of 206 single-family homes conveniently located on S.R. 535 adjacent to Walt Disney World. 

This summer, Toll also plans to open Lakeshore off Seidel Road in master-planned Horizon West. It will encompass 365 single-family homes and townhomes that feature views of the Orange County National Golf Course and Panther Lake. 

Nearby, Minto Communities is betting on tourism and the appeal of resort-style living at Festival. The international builder has plans for 500 luxury vacation villas and a dynamic downtown. 

Natural woodlands and lakes buffer the roughly 200-acre site, which stretches between I-4 and Ronald Reagan Parkway. 

In Celebration, David Weekley Homes has started building in Spring Lake, where its bungalow-style homes add to the community’s small-town charm. Prices start in the mid-$300s.

In Davenport, Highland Homes is now selling in Highland Meadows Phase II. Homes start in the $140s and range in size from 1,250 to 2,487 square feet. 

In Winter Haven, Highland is introducing Country Club Estates, a community of stylish yet affordable new homes located near LegoLand. Prices are even less, starting in the $130s — yes, the $130s — with homes ranging in size from 1,301 to 2,827 square feet.

Mattamy Homes has two new communities in Kissimmee: Sera Bella and Tapestry, both opening in the spring/summer. 

Sera Bella is touting affordable family living, with single-family homes priced from the low $200s. Tapestry is a larger master-planned community with townhomes and single-family homes priced from the high $100s to the mid-$300s. 

Additionally, Mattamy is opening Windermere Trails in January, with townhomes priced from the low $200s. 

“We expect that 2015 will be the strongest year of the recovery,” says Kelly Thomas, marketing manager. “Mattamy Homes is doubling in growth this coming year.”

Growth also is the operative word for Park Square Homes. 

The Dellagio Residences, slated to open in February and located a short distance from West Sand Lake Road, will feature 88 California Mission-style homes. Prices will start in the upper $500s.

Go a bit farther to the west — just a few minutes on increasing popular S.R. 429 — and builders are creating the same sort of bustle.

In Winter Garden, D.R. Horton has mega plans at Waterleigh, a lifestyle-centered, lakefront residential community earmarked for up to 3,600 homes. Located on more than 1,400 acres around Hickorynut Lake, Waterleigh is the largest and newest addition to Horizon West. Prices had not been set at presstime.

Home designs feature light stone, brushed-aluminum finishes and a native plant palette. Construction on the community began in September; the first phase is called Marina Bay.

At Pulte’s Lakeview Pointe in Winter Garden, single-family homes and townhomes are planned. Prices had not been set at presstime. 

KB Home Central Florida has two new communities in Winter Garden: Lake Hancock Reserve and Orchard Park. Prices had not been set at presstime.

In January, Royal Oak Homes is rolling out the red carpet for Black Lake Preserve — a gated community of single-family homes with prices starting in the mid-$300s, Black Lake Preserve will encompass 91 new three-, four-, five- and six-bedroom homes. Prices had not been set at presstime.

In Ocoee, Mattamy plans to open Spring Lake Reserve in April. This private enclave of single-family homes will be priced from the mid-$200s. 

POINTING NORTH, EAST AND NORTHWEST

As a sign of market maturity, Seminole County doesn’t register substantial new-community activity heading into 2015. It’s been largely built out for years.

Mostly, starts and sales continue in existing developments. One exception is Preserve at Lake Sylvan by Park Square.

Slated to open in February, the Heathrow-area community will offer homes with barrel-tile roofs, Mediterranean-style turrets and stylish interior detailing. There’ll be six floorplans ranging in size from 2,494 to 5,010 square feet. Prices will start from the $400s.

In east Orlando, Lake Nona and the surrounding area are booming, thanks in large part to burgeoning Medical City and its anchors, including the UCF College of Medicine and the Sanford-Burnham Medical Research Institute. 

In the most recent tally of housing starts by Metrostudy, Lake Nona was tabbed as the fastest-growing community in the region. 

While most of the Lake Nona activity is at existing communities, Pulte is getting underway at the Enclave at VillageWalk, a new gated community of 144 homes. 

Prices will range from the $600s to more than $1 million. Interior features include three-car garages, spiral staircases and 12-foot ceilings. There are 144 homesites. 

This spring, David Weekley is introducing a new model in its Garden Series at Laureate Park in Lake Nona. The Kahneman II plan is a two-story design that will be priced from $399,357.

Nearby, KB Home’s new Lakeshore at Narcoossee is a lakefront community with access to Fells Cove and East Lake Tohopekaliga. Townhomes will start in the high $100s and single-family homes from the mid-$200s.

Just down Narcoossee Road is Lennar’s The Enclave at Moss Park, where eight floorplans are offered at prices ranging from the mid-$260s to the mid-$350s.

Even farther down Narcoossee in St. Cloud, Royal Oak is working on a new community, Underwood Estates, which boasts oversized lots. Prices had not been set at presstime.

Also on the eastside, near Chickasaw Trail and Curry Ford Road, KB Home’s new Arbor Chase is priced from $218,990 to $303,990.

There are 12 single-family floorplans ranging in size up to 3,782 square feet. Essentially on the opposite side of Orlando International Airport, KB Home has Sawgrass Pointe, a new community with single-family homes priced from $240s. 

Not to be forgotten is the northwest, largely Lake County. In early 2014, Taylor Morrison purchased a 579-acre site in Clermont, where it’s now selling the Esplanade at Highland Ranch to buyers age 55 and up. 

The community will feature 475 homes priced from the low $200s. Many have pond or lake views.

Meanwhile, the company’s Canyons at Highland Ranch offers a family-friendly ambience, including a park, pool, cabana, splash pad, mail kiosk, pet stations and four miles of walking trails. 

Buyers also enjoy access to the South Lake Trail, a scenic 7-mile paved system with panoramic views of sparkling lakes and the Orlando skyline. 

Homes in The Canyons are priced from the low $200s to the low $300s.